Game Result Predictions
Friday, March 23
Friday, March 23
The Resid and Elo Predictions calculates each team's final score, margin of victory (spread), and probability of winning the game.
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Valparaiso (19-34) | 9 | 5 | +3.0 | 39% | ✘ | 4 | +3.5 | 30% | ✘ | |
Butler (31-20) | 2 | 8 | -3.0 | 61% | 7 | -3.5 | 70% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Creighton (34-16) | 7 | 7 | -1.0 | 54% | ✔ | 7 | -3.5 | 71% | ✔ | |
Illinois State (21-29) | 5 | 6 | +1.0 | 46% | 4 | +3.5 | 29% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Creighton (34-16) | 5 | 7 | -1.0 | 54% | ✔ | 7 | -3.5 | 71% | ✔ | |
Illinois State (21-29) | 1 | 6 | +1.0 | 46% | 4 | +3.5 | 29% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Xavier (20-35) | 4 | 5 | +4.0 | 36% | ✔ | 4 | +4.5 | 25% | ✔ | |
Indiana State (31-24) | 6 | 9 | -4.0 | 64% | 9 | -4.5 | 75% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Xavier (20-35) | 3 | 5 | +4.0 | 36% | ✔ | 4 | +4.5 | 25% | ✔ | |
Indiana State (31-24) | 4 | 9 | -4.0 | 64% | 9 | -4.5 | 75% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Cal State Northridge (28-30) | 2 | 4 | +3.0 | 39% | ✔ | 2 | +4.5 | 26% | ✔ | |
Missouri State (40-17) | 3 | 7 | -3.0 | 61% | 7 | -4.5 | 74% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
Dallas Baptist (42-21) | 9 | 6 | +1.0 | 46% | ✘ | 6 | -1.0 | 56% | ✔ | |
Sam Houston State (39-20) | 7 | 7 | -1.0 | 54% | 5 | +1.0 | 44% |
Final | Resid Prediction | ELO Prediction | ||||||||
Score | Spread | Win Prob. | Score | Spread | Win Prob. | |||||
UC Irvine (32-24) | 6 | 5 | +1.0 | 46% | ✘ | 5 | -1.0 | 56% | ✔ | |
Southern Illinois (28-30) | 2 | 6 | -1.0 | 54% | 4 | +1.0 | 44% |
Friday, March 23 Results
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 62%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 88%
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 62%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 88%
Overall Results (851 games)
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 71%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 68%
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 71%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 68%
The goal for the Game Result Predictions is to determine winners at a rate greater than 70%.